Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
