A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
